Which teams will proceed in groups G and H?

Finally, we take a look on groups G and H. While Belgium and England are clear favourites in group G, group H seems to be more balanced with advantages of Columbia and Poland. Nonetheless, Senegal has some chances to save the pride of the African continent.

We use a statistical model that  relies on the matches of the participating teams since 2010. It allows us to simulate each game in dependence of each team’s individual strength and weakness in attack and defence; for more details see A more sophisticated forecast model. We have obtained the following probabilities for group G:

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Belgium 51 % 32 % 13 % 4 %
England 40 % 35 % 17 % 7 %
Panama 5 % 18 % 38 % 39 %
Tunisia 4 % 14 % 32 % 50 %

This table describes the probability that a specific team becomes First, Second, Third or Last in the group. Note that due to rounding the probabilities columns and rows do not necessarily sum up to 1.


A click on the above picture leads to an interactive java-script version.

The probabilities for group H are as follows:

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Colombia 46 % 27 % 17 % 10 %
Poland 22 % 28 % 27 % 23 %
Senegal 18 % 24 % 28 % 30 %
Japan 14 % 21 % 28 % 37 %


A click on the above picture leads to an interactive java-script version.