Which teams will proceed in groups E and F?

It is time today to take a look on groups E and F. It will be a big surprise if Brazil and Germany do not win their groups. However, with a probability of about 25% one of them will only be second and both favorites will already meet in the round of 16! In group E Switzerland has some advantages on the concurrents for the second place but it seems like an open race here. In group F we can expect  an exciting competition between Sweden and Mexico.

 

We use a statistical model that  relies on the matches of the participating teams since 2010. It allows us to simulate each game in dependence of each team’s individual strength and weakness in attack and defence; for more details see A more sophisticated forecast model. We have obtained the following probabilities for group E:

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Brazil 77 % 16 % 5 % 2 %
Switzerland 11 % 39 % 30 % 21 %
Costa Rica 7 % 24 % 33 % 37 %
Serbia 5 % 22 % 33 % 41 %

This table describes the probability that a specific team becomes First, Second, Third or Last in the group. Note that due to rounding the probabilities columns and rows do not necessarily sum up to 1.


A click on the above picture leads to an interactive java-script version.

The probabilities for group F are as follows:

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Germany 74 % 19 % 6 % 2 %
Mexiko 14 % 39 % 31 % 16 %
Sweden 11 % 31 % 36 % 22 %
South Korea 2 % 12 % 27 % 60 %

 


A click on the above picture leads to an interactive java-script version.