Which teams will proceed in groups C and D?

In this post we forecast the outcomes of groups C and D during the 2018 FIFA World Cup™. Group C consists of France, Peru, Denmark and Australia. France may be considered as a clear favourite in this group, but will still drop out with a considerable probability of 21%. It is not obvious if Denmark is stronger than Peru. Australia still has some outsider chances. In Group D Argentina should make the race followed by Croatia. However, Iceland is always good for a surprise and Nigeria still has some chances. Note here that forecasts for teams in weaker confederations are notoriously difficult.

We use a statistical model that  relies on the matches of the participating teams since 2010. It allows us to simulate each game in dependence of each team’s individual strength and weakness in attack and defence; for more details see A more sophisticated forecast model. We have obtained the following probabilities for group C:

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
France 50 % 29 % 15 % 6 %
Peru 27 % 33 % 26 % 15 %
Denmark 18 % 26 % 32 % 24 %
Australia 5 % 2 % 27 % 56 %

This table describes the probability that a specific team becomes First, Second, Third or Last in the group. Note that due to rounding the probabilities columns and rows do not necessarily sum up to 1.


A click on the above picture leads to an interactive java-script version.

The probabilities for group D are as follows:

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Argentine 61 % 25 % 10 % 4 %
Croatia 28 % 40 % 21 % 11 %
Iceland 5 % 16 % 34 % 46 %
Nigeria 6 % 19 % 35 % 39 %

 


A click on the above picture leads to an interactive java-script version.