Update: What are the probable outcomes of the whole tournament?

Finally, the test matches are over and the World Cup 2018 will start today. Since our prediction model is based on the Elo strength of the participating teams, we have updated our data by incorporating the results of the test matches and the current Elo ranking of the participating teams from June 14, 2018, and have made 100.000 simulations of the whole tournament. We are interested in the influence of the series of test matches during the last weeks on our forecast.

The following table gives the estimated rounded probabilities for each team to reach a certain round or win the World Cup. In particular, Germany has lost some points since our last prediction due to a bad performance in their friendly matches, while Brazil has slightly won. Nonetheless, Germany has still the highest probability to win the World Cup 2018.

Team WC Final Semi Quarter R16 Group First Group Second Group K.O.
Germany 28.4 39.7 55.8 72.3 91.7 72.5 19.2 8.2
Brazil 19.7 34.7 47.1 63.1 93.4 77 16.4 6.6
Spain 12.6 22.9 43.8 67.6 86.7 60.3 26.4 13.3
Argentina 9.4 17.9 34.6 59.2 90.2 67.5 22.7 9.7
Colombia 3.7 8.3 17.4 41.4 70.1 41.7 28.4 29.8
France 3.5 10 25 45.1 75 45 30 25.1
Peru 3.3 8 17.7 34.3 62.6 30.9 31.6 37.6
Belgium 3.1 8.7 18.4 50 82.7 50.7 32 17.1
Portugal 3 8.7 22.5 45.5 67.7 26.7 41 32.2
England 2.8 7.2 15.7 43.6 74.7 39.9 34.7 25.3
Russia 2.8 5.2 10.3 21.4 48.3 20.4 27.9 51.7
Sweden 1.1 3.2 7.8 16.2 43.4 11.8 31.6 56.5
Uruguay 1 3.9 13.5 33.3 83.3 57.2 26.1 16.8
Mexico 1 3.6 9.4 18.6 52.7 14.1 38.6 47.4
Croatia 0.8 3.5 12 29.1 69.2 24.6 44.7 30.8
Senegal 0.8 2.5 6.9 21.5 47.2 22.1 25.1 52.8
Denmark 0.7 2.3 7.3 17.9 41.7 17.4 24.3 58.5
Poland 0.6 2.1 6.2 21.7 49.5 22.4 27.1 50.6
Morocco 0.6 1.9 5.6 14.6 30.8 10.2 20.7 69.1
Switzerland 0.5 2 6 13.4 47.7 10.5 37.2 52.3
Serbia 0.3 1.1 3.5 8.6 32.6 6.9 25.7 67.4
Costa Rica 0.2 0.7 2.4 6.4 26.4 5.5 20.8 73.6
Egypt 0.1 0.5 2.5 11.4 56.8 20.2 36.5 43.5
Australia 0.1 0.4 2 6.5 21.1 6.8 14.2 78.9
Japan 0 0.2 1.5 10.4 33.1 13.6 19.5 66.8
Saudi Arabia 0 0 0 0.7 11.8 2.2 9.6 88.1
Iran 0 0.1 1.1 5.3 14.4 2.7 11.7 85.5
Iceland 0 0 0.7 3.1 17.8 3.3 14.5 82.2
Nigeria 0 0.1 1.2 4.9 22.6 4.6 18 77.3
South Korea 0 0 0.3 1.3 12 1.6 10.4 87.9
Panama 0 0 0.5 5.8 22.1 4.7 17.4 77.8
Tunisia 0 0.1 0.7 5.3 20.4 4.5 15.9 79.7
Note:
Forecasted probabilities for each team to reach a certain round or win the worldcup. Copyright: Datatreker.com