Update after Round of 16: What are the probable outcomes of the whole tournament?

The matches of the Round of 16 in the World Cup 2018 have been played. Only 8 of 32 teams are left, while top favourites Spain and Argentina have been eliminated. Since the path of each team to a possible final is fixed, we are interested in how difficult or easy it is to reach different stages of the tournament.

Since our prediction model is based on the Elo strength of the participating teams, we have updated our data by incorporating the results of the group phase and the Round of 16 and have made 100.000 simulations of the Knockout phase of the tournament (starting with the quarterfinals).

The following table gives the estimated rounded probabilities for each team to reach a certain round or win the World Cup. The column “K.O. Quarter” gives the probability of being eliminated in the quarterfinals. Since our last update after the group phase Brazil has won additional 10%: although Brazil’s path to the final remains difficult, a possible opponent in the final seems to be rather weaker due to the elimination of Argentina and Spain. Belgium made a jump by 3.5% since our last prediction. France, one of the top favourites among experts, won almost 8%. But also Sweden has won more than 6% chance to win the World Cup.

Team WC Final Semi K.O. Quarter
Brazil 36.2 48.2 58.4 41.6
Belgium 17.2 25 41.6 58.4
France 13 19.2 65.9 34.1
Sweden 12.7 28.9 53.8 46.2
Croatia 8.2 33.4 63.7 36.3
Russia 6.1 16.4 36.3 63.7
Uruguay 4.8 7.6 34.1 65.9
England 1.8 21.3 46.2 53.8
Forecasted probabilities for each team to reach a certain round or win the world cup. Copyright: Datatreker.com