Update after Quarter-finals: Which team has now best chances to become new World Champion?

The matches of the quarter-finals in the World Cup 2018 have been played. Only 4 of 32 teams are left. While top favourite Brazil has been eliminated by Belgium in the quarter-final, the semifinal between France and Belgium seems to be a preponed final. In the other semifinal Croatia will face England, two teams which are quite unexpected in the semifinals.  We are now interested in the chances of the remaining teams.

Since our prediction model is based on the Elo strength of the participating teams, we have updated our data by incorporating the results up to the quarter-finals and have made 100.000 simulations of the Knockout phase of the tournament (starting with the semifinals).

The following table gives the estimated rounded probabilities for each team to reach the final or to win the World Cup. The column “K.O. Semifinal” gives the probability of being eliminated in the semifinal. Since our last update after the Round of 16, the situation has changed significantly due to the elimination of Brazil. Now Belgium is our top favourite followed by France. In particular, we expect the winner of the semifinal France vs. Belgium to become the new World Champion. Croatia and England should only have minor chances to reach the big goal.

Team WC Final K.O. Semifinal
Belgium 41.6 53.5 46.5
France 36 46.5 53.5
Croatia 11.7 42.3 57.7
England 10.7 57.7 42.3
Note:
Forecasted probabilities for each team to reach a certain round or win the world cup. Copyright: Datatreker.com