Update after Match Day 2: What are the probable outcomes of the whole tournament?

The second match day in the World Cup 2018 is over. Every team has played twice and several decisions are fallen. Since our prediction model is based on the Elo strength of the participating teams, we have updated our data by incorporating the results of the second match day and have made 100.000 simulations of the whole tournament (starting from match day 3). We are interested in the influence of the results of the first and second match days on our forecast.

The following table gives the estimated rounded probabilities for each team to reach a certain round or win the World Cup. In particular, Germany has won 4.7 points since our last prediction due to the last-minute victory over Sweden. Now, Germany has good chances to qualify for the round of 16, where Brazil could become a possible opponent. This leads to a 30% chance for Germany to drop out in this round. Vice versa, Brazil has lost some points due to a possible early meeting with Germany. Argentina has still chances to qualify for the round of 16, but may face France in the round of 16 which decreases the chances of Argentina to reach the quarterfinals since our last prediction. Belgium is now among the top four teams. France has a remarkable 42,6% chance to drop out in the round of 16 due to a possible match with Argentina.

Team WC Final Semi Quarter R16 GroupFirst GroupSecond GroupKO
Germany 26.8 36.3 48.6 61.9 91.6 22.7 68.9 8.3
Brazil 19.3 28.6 39.5 50.9 93.5 74.4 19.1 6.4
Spain 14.7 28 50.2 71.8 98.8 54.5 44.3 1.2
Belgium 6.1 14.2 28.2 64.8 100 51.5 48.5 0
Argentina 6 10.5 22.9 38.6 66.2 0 66.2 33.8
Portugal 4.7 14 31.4 58.3 92.5 42.9 49.6 7.5
France 4.3 10.2 29 57.4 100 79.7 20.3 0
Colombia 3.2 6.7 12.9 27.5 51.3 26.3 25 48.6
Russia 3 6.7 15.2 36.1 100 51.9 48.2 0
Croatia 2.6 9.9 22.9 57.3 100 100 0 0
Switzerland 2 7.2 18.1 38.8 97.3 21.5 75.8 2.7
Mexico 1.8 6.9 16.6 34.7 77.6 66.2 11.3 22.4
Senegal 1.6 4.6 11.3 29.5 70.6 42.2 28.4 29.5
Denmark 1.1 4.2 12.5 36.5 87.8 20.4 67.4 12.2
Uruguay 1 3.9 12.9 31 100 48 51.9 0
England 0.9 4.6 15 57.8 100 48.5 51.5 0
Sweden 0.6 1.9 4.8 10.7 29.7 11.2 18.5 70.5
Japan 0.1 0.8 3.8 20.3 77.9 31.3 46.6 21.9
Serbia 0.1 0.4 1.2 3 9.3 4.1 5.1 90.8
Australia 0 0.3 1.1 4.2 12.2 0 12.2 87.8
Nigeria 0 0.1 1.1 5.1 28.6 0 28.6 71.5
Iran 0 0 0.5 2.8 8.6 2.5 6.1 91.3
Iceland 0 0 0.2 1 5.2 0 5.2 94.8
South Korea 0 0 0 0.1 1.1 0 1.1 98.9
Saudi Arabia 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100
Egypt 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100
Morocco 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100
Peru 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100
Costa Rica 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100
Panama 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100
Tunisia 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100
Poland 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100
Note:
Forecasted probabilities for each team to reach a certain round or win the worldcup. Copyright: Datatreker.com