Update after Match Day 1: What are the probable outcomes of the whole tournament?

The first match day in the World Cup 2018 is over. Every team has played once. Since our prediction model is based on the Elo strength of the participating teams, we have updated our data by incorporating the results of the first match day and have made 100.000 simulations of the whole tournament (starting from match day 2). We are interested in the influence of the results of the first match day on our forecast.

The following table gives the estimated rounded probabilities for each team to reach a certain round or win the World Cup. In particular, Germany has lost several points since our last prediction due to the defeat in their first game against Mexico. Even worse, Germany has now a 29.1% chance to get knocked out in the group phase! Spain, Argentina, Portugal and France have slightly won. We remark also that Brazil has lost 9% for reaching the quarter finals since there is some threat of meeting Germany already in the round of 16. Furthermore, Belgium increased their chances to reach the semifinals by more than 5%, since they might avoid Germany in the quarter finals. Of course, one of the big questions will be whether the current World Champions from Germany will find back to their strength or will extend the list of World Champions which drop out in the group phase.

Team WC Final Semi Quarter R16 Group First Group Second Group K.O.
Germany 22.1 30.1 39.8 50.4 70.8 24.6 46.2 29.1
Brazil 20.4 30.9 42.3 54.7 87.8 60.5 27.3 12.3
Spain 14.7 26.6 45.6 66.2 86.7 52.5 34.2 13.4
Argentina 9.9 18.7 32.7 54.6 83.2 48.5 34.8 16.8
Portugal 4.4 12.5 27.6 52.4 78.7 37.4 41.4 21.3
France 4.3 10.8 26.7 50.4 83.5 57.9 25.7 16.5
Belgium 4.2 10.8 23.8 59.4 94.3 54.2 40.2 5.5
Russia 2.8 6 13.1 29.8 75.8 38.4 37.4 24.4
England 2.5 7.5 19.7 55 91.5 44.8 46.8 8.5
Mexico 2 7 18.7 36.2 83.2 56.1 27.1 16.9
Senegal 2 5.2 13 33.1 71.7 43.3 28.3 28.3
Colombia 1.8 3.8 7.6 16.5 32.2 7.5 24.7 67.9
Switzerland 1.4 4.3 11.5 23.3 57.3 19.5 37.8 42.7
Peru 1.4 3.3 7 14.6 28 6.3 21.7 71.9
Uruguay 1.3 4.2 13.9 34.4 91.6 59.9 31.7 8.4
Croatia 1.2 5 14.3 37.5 83.6 45.4 38.1 16.5
Denmark 1.2 4 12 31.1 71.7 33.3 38.4 28.3
Sweden 1.1 3.3 8.2 17.5 43.9 18.9 25 56.2
Serbia 0.5 1.9 6.4 16.1 49.5 18.5 31 50.5
Japan 0.2 1.2 5.3 23.2 72.2 44.3 27.8 27.6
Poland 0.2 0.8 2.4 8 24 4.9 19.1 76.1
Iran 0.1 0.5 2.2 9.8 28.8 7.8 20.9 71.2
Morocco 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.5 5.9 2.3 3.5 94.1
Australia 0.1 0.4 1.5 5.1 16.8 2.4 14.3 83.3
Iceland 0 0.2 1.2 5.3 26.2 5.2 21 73.7
Saudi Arabia 0 0 0 0.1 1.4 0.1 1.3 98.7
Egypt 0 0.2 1 4.9 31.3 1.6 29.7 68.6
Nigeria 0 0 0.2 1.3 6.9 0.8 6.1 93
Costa Rica 0 0.1 0.6 1.6 5.4 1.4 4 94.6
South Korea 0 0 0 0.3 2.1 0.4 1.7 97.8
Panama 0 0 0.3 2.2 6.6 0.4 6.2 93.4
Tunisia 0 0.1 0.4 2.5 7.5 0.6 6.9 92.6
Note:
Forecasted probabilities for each team to reach a certain round or win the world cup. Copyright: Datatreker.com