Update after group phase: What are the probable outcomes of the whole tournament?

The group phase in the World Cup 2018 is over. Half of the participating teams have been eliminated, including the current World Champion Germany who showed an unexpected weak performance. Now the path of each team to a possible final is fixed and we are interested in how difficult or easy it is to reach different stages of the tournament.

Since our prediction model is based on the Elo strength of the participating teams, we have updated our data by incorporating the results of the group phase and have made 100.000 simulations of the Knockout phase of the tournament (starting from match day 3).

The following table gives the estimated rounded probabilities for each team to reach a certain round or win the World Cup. The column “K.O. R16” gives the probability of being eliminated in the Round of 16. Since Germany went out of the World Cup Brazil is now our most probable favourite followed by Spain. Belgium made the biggest jump by 7.6% since our last prediction. France, one of the top favourites among experts, still has only a 5.1% chance to win the World Cup due to a hard match against Argentina in the Round of 16. England increased their chances to reach the semifinals by almost 10% because they were expected to meet Germany in the quarterfinals, but now they may face Sweden or Switzerland.

Team WC Final Semi Quarter K.O. R16
Brazil 26.9 38.9 51.4 80 20
Spain 16.9 33.8 49.6 71.5 28.5
Belgium 13.7 23.3 38.1 81.7 18.3
Sweden 6.4 14 28.7 54.5 45.5
Colombia 6.4 13.7 27.9 53.2 46.8
Argentina 6 11.6 26.8 50.6 49.4
Croatia 5.4 15.8 28 66.9 33.1
France 5.1 10.1 30.2 49.5 50.5
Portugal 4.1 8.6 26.7 59.3 40.7
Switzerland 2.3 7.2 19 45.5 54.5
Russia 1.9 5 11.4 28.6 71.4
Uruguay 1.8 4.2 16.4 40.7 59.3
Denmark 1 4 11 33 67
Mexico 1 2.8 7.9 19.9 80.1
England 0.9 6.5 24.4 46.8 53.2
Japan 0.1 0.5 2.5 18.3 81.7
Note:
Forecasted probabilities for each team to reach a certain round or win the world cup. Copyright: Datatreker.com