In this post we give our prediction for the second semifinal match between Croatia and England in the World Cup 2018. While Croatia as winner of group D has eliminated the host Russia in the quarter-final, England has beaten Sweden in their quarter-final match. We have updated our model by incorporating the results up to the quarter-finals in order to forecast the matches in the quarter-finals.
We present the probabilities for each team to qualify for the final. This takes into account a victory after 90 or 120 minutes according to our model. Furthermore, we give the probability for a penalty shoot-out. Our model favours England, although Croatia still has reasonable chances to get the ticket for the final. Nonetheless the outcome of the match seems to be open and the performance on the match day will play a crucial role. A decision by penalty shoot-out is rather unlikely. (We recall from our previous posts: We believe that penalty shoot-outs are very difficult if not impossible to model and hence we do not give any further forecasts in this case.)
Analogously to our previous posts during the group phase of the tournament, we present the probabilities for the match after 90 minutes: we favour a 0-1 victory of England or a 1-1 draw, followed by a 1-0 victory of Croatia and a 0-2 victory of England after 90 minutes.
Since the probability for a draw after 90 minutes is high, we also present the expected results after 120 minutes in the case that the match goes into extra time (ET):
Hence, the estimated probability that Croatia wins 2-1 after extra time is 2.45%. This includes the cases of a 0-0 or a 1-1 draw after 90 minutes. According to the above table we expect a penalty shoot-out if the match goes into extra time. We don’t see a remarkable advantage for any team during extra time.