In this post we give our prediction for the match Uruguay vs. Portugal in the Round of 16 of the World Cup 2018. While Uruguay has qualified as winner of group A with 9 points, Portugal (5 points) was runner-up of group B behind Spain (5 points) due to less scored goals than Spain. Since our prediction model is based on the Elo strengths of the participating teams, we have updated our data by incorporating the results of the group phase in order to forecast the matches in the Knockout phase. We are interested which team has better chances to qualify for the quarter-finals.
We present the probabilities for each team to qualify for the quarter-final. This takes into account a victory after 90 or 120 minutes according to our model. Furthermore, we give the probability for a penalty shoot-out. Our model favours Portugal, but we still have a good chance to see the decision in a penalty shoot-out. We believe that penality shoot-outs are very difficult if not impossible to model and hence we do not give any further forecasts in this case.
Analogously to our previous posts during the group phase of the tournament, we present the probabilities for the match after 90 minutes: we favour almost equally a 1-1 draw or 0-1 victory of Portugal after 90 minutes.
Since we have a high probability for a draw, we also present the expected results after 120 minutes provided that the match goes into extra time (ET):
Hence, the estimated probability that Portugal wins 2-1 after extra time is 2.79%. This includes the cases of a 0-0 or a 1-1 draw after 90 minutes.