In this post we give our prediction for the match France vs. Argentina in the Round of 16 of the World Cup 2018. This match is definitely one of the top matches in this stage of the tournament. Since our prediction model is based on the Elo strengths of the participating teams, we have updated our data by incorporating the results of the group phase in order to forecast the matches in the Knockout phase. While France has qualified as winner of group C, Argentina was surprisingly only runner-up of group D. We are interested which team has better chances to qualify for the quarter-finals.
We present the probabilities for each team to qualify for the quarter-final. This takes into account a victory after 90 or 120 minutes according to our model. Furthermore, we give the probability for a penalty shoot-out. Our model favours Argentina only slightly and we have a good chance to see the decision in a penalty shoot-out. We believe that penality shoot-outs are very difficult if not impossible to model and hence we do not give any further forecasts in this case.
Analogously to our previous posts during the group phase of the tournament, we present the probabilities for the match after 90 minutes: we favour almost equally 0-0 or 1-1 draws or 1-0 or 0-1 victories.
Since we have a very high probability for a draw, we also present the expected results after 120 minutes provided that the match goes into extra time (ET):
Hence, the estimated probability that France wins 2-1 after extra time is 2.44%. This includes the cases of a 0-0 or a 1-1 draw after 90 minutes.