Quarter final: Uruguay – France

In this post we give our prediction for the quarter-final match Uruguay vs. France in the World Cup 2018. While Uruguay as winner of group H has eliminated European champion Portugal, France as winner of group C has eliminated Argentina with Lionel Messi. Since our prediction model is based on the Elo strengths of the participating teams, we have updated our data by incorporating the results up to the Round of 16 in order to forecast the matches in the quarter-finals.

We present the probabilities for each team to qualify for the semi-final. This takes into account a victory after 90 or 120 minutes according to our model. Furthermore, we give the probability for a penalty shoot-out. Our model clearly favours France. We rather don’t expect a decision by penalty shoot-out in this match. (We recall from our previous posts: We believe that penalty shoot-outs are very difficult if not impossible to model and hence we do not give any further forecasts in this case.) The big question will also be whether Edison Cavani from Uruguay recovers from his injury.


Analogously to our previous posts during the group phase of the tournament, we present the probabilities for the match after 90 minutes: we favour a 0-1 victory of France, followed by a 1-1 draw after 90 minutes.


Since the probability for a draw after 90 minutes is high, we also present the expected results after 120 minutes in the case that the match goes into extra time (ET):


Hence, the estimated probability that France wins 1-2 after extra time is 2.88%. This includes the cases of a 0-0 or a 1-1 draw after 90 minutes. According to the above table we rather expect a penalty shoot-out if the match goes into extra time.