Quarter final: Russia – Croatia

In this post we give our prediction for the quarter-final match Russia vs. Croatia in the World Cup 2018. While Russia as runner-up of group A has surprisingly eliminated Spain in the Round of 16, Croatia as winner of group D has eliminated Denmark in a penalty shoot-out. We have updated our model by incorporating the results up to the Round of 16 in order to forecast the matches in the quarter-finals.

We present the probabilities for each team to qualify for the semi-final. This takes into account a victory after 90 or 120 minutes according to our model. Furthermore, we give the probability for a penalty shoot-out. Our model favours Croatia clearly, although Russia still has reasonable chances to qualify for the semi-final. A decision by penalty shoot-out is quite unlikely. (We recall from our previous posts: We believe that penalty shoot-outs are very difficult if not impossible to model and hence we do not give any further forecasts in this case.)

RUSCRO-result

Analogously to our previous posts during the group phase of the tournament, we present the probabilities for the match after 90 minutes: we favour a 0-2 victory of Croatia, followed by 1-1 draw after 90 minutes. A 0-3, 0-1 or 1-2 victories of Croatia belong also to the most probable scores.

RUSCRO-score90

Since the probability for a draw after 90 minutes is high, we also present the expected results after 120 minutes in the case that the match goes into extra time (ET):

RUSCRO-scoreET

Hence, the estimated probability that Russia wins 2-1 after extra time is 2.32%. This includes the cases of a 0-0 or a 1-1 draw after 90 minutes. According to the above table we rather expect a penalty shoot-out if the match goes into extra time.