In this post we give our prediction for the quarter-final match Russia vs. Croatia in the World Cup 2018. While Russia as runner-up of group A has surprisingly eliminated Spain in the Round of 16, Croatia as winner of group D has eliminated Denmark in a penalty shoot-out. We have updated our model by incorporating the results up to the Round of 16 in order to forecast the matches in the quarter-finals.
We present the probabilities for each team to qualify for the semi-final. This takes into account a victory after 90 or 120 minutes according to our model. Furthermore, we give the probability for a penalty shoot-out. Our model favours Croatia clearly, although Russia still has reasonable chances to qualify for the semi-final. A decision by penalty shoot-out is quite unlikely. (We recall from our previous posts: We believe that penalty shoot-outs are very difficult if not impossible to model and hence we do not give any further forecasts in this case.)
Analogously to our previous posts during the group phase of the tournament, we present the probabilities for the match after 90 minutes: we favour a 0-2 victory of Croatia, followed by 1-1 draw after 90 minutes. A 0-3, 0-1 or 1-2 victories of Croatia belong also to the most probable scores.
Since the probability for a draw after 90 minutes is high, we also present the expected results after 120 minutes in the case that the match goes into extra time (ET):
Hence, the estimated probability that Russia wins 2-1 after extra time is 2.32%. This includes the cases of a 0-0 or a 1-1 draw after 90 minutes. According to the above table we rather expect a penalty shoot-out if the match goes into extra time.