Quarter final: Brazil – Belgium

In this post we give our prediction for the quarter-final match Brazil vs. Belgium in the World Cup 2018. While Brazil as winner of group E has eliminated Mexico, Belgium as winner of group G has eliminated Japan. We have updated our model by incorporating the results up to the Round of 16 in order to forecast the matches in the quarter-finals.

We present the probabilities for each team to qualify for the semi-final. This takes into account a victory after 90 or 120 minutes according to our model. Furthermore, we give the probability for a penalty shoot-out. Our model favours Brazil. A decision by penalty shoot-out could be possible in this match. (We recall from our previous posts: We believe that penalty shoot-outs are very difficult if not impossible to model and hence we do not give any further forecasts in this case.)

BRABEL-result

Analogously to our previous posts during the group phase of the tournament, we present the probabilities for the match after 90 minutes: we favour a 1-0 victory of Brazil, followed by 1-1 or 0-0 draws after 90 minutes. However, a 0-1 victory of Belgium belongs also to the most probable scores.

BRABEL-score90

Since the probability for a draw after 90 minutes is high, we also present the expected results after 120 minutes in the case that the match goes into extra time (ET):

BRABEL-scoreET

Hence, the estimated probability that Brazil wins 2-1 after extra time is 2.71%. This includes the cases of a 0-0 or a 1-1 draw after 90 minutes. According to the above table we expect a penalty shoot-out if the match goes into extra time.