In this post we give our prediction for the quarter-final match Brazil vs. Belgium in the World Cup 2018. While Brazil as winner of group E has eliminated Mexico, Belgium as winner of group G has eliminated Japan. We have updated our model by incorporating the results up to the Round of 16 in order to forecast the matches in the quarter-finals.
We present the probabilities for each team to qualify for the semi-final. This takes into account a victory after 90 or 120 minutes according to our model. Furthermore, we give the probability for a penalty shoot-out. Our model favours Brazil. A decision by penalty shoot-out could be possible in this match. (We recall from our previous posts: We believe that penalty shoot-outs are very difficult if not impossible to model and hence we do not give any further forecasts in this case.)
Analogously to our previous posts during the group phase of the tournament, we present the probabilities for the match after 90 minutes: we favour a 1-0 victory of Brazil, followed by 1-1 or 0-0 draws after 90 minutes. However, a 0-1 victory of Belgium belongs also to the most probable scores.
Since the probability for a draw after 90 minutes is high, we also present the expected results after 120 minutes in the case that the match goes into extra time (ET):
Hence, the estimated probability that Brazil wins 2-1 after extra time is 2.71%. This includes the cases of a 0-0 or a 1-1 draw after 90 minutes. According to the above table we expect a penalty shoot-out if the match goes into extra time.