Prediction for Match Day 3 in Group H

Before we present our estimated results for the last matches in group H, we give a quick evaluation of our forecast for the second match day in this group. The result of the first match was a surprisingly clear 0-3 victory of Colombia over Poland. However, our model favoured Colombia to win this match. The match between Japan and Senegal ended 2-2 and was expected with a probability of 6%.


A click on the above picture leads to an interactive java-script version.

In the following table we give the probabilities for the single teams to qualify for the Round of 16. Poland is already eliminated but it is unclear which teams will qualify for the Round of 16 and in which order.

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Senegal 42 % 28 % 30 % 0 %
Japan 31 % 47 % 22 % 0 %
Colombia 26 % 25 % 49 % 0 %
Poland 0 % 0 % 1 % 99 %

Now we take a closer look on both games in group H. In the first match Colombia is slightly favoured against Senegal:


We favour a 1-1 or 0-0 draw, followed by a 0-1 victory of Colombia. But also a 1-0 victory of Senegal belongs to the most probable scores.


In the second match in group H between Japan and Poland, the “Samurais” are slightly favoured:


The predicted scores are as follows:


Our model favours a 1-1 draw, followed by a 1-0 victory of Japan. But a 0-0 draw or a 0-1 victory of Poland are also among the most probable scores.