Before we present our estimated results for the last matches in group G, we give a quick evaluation of our forecast for the second match day in this group. The result of the first match was a 5-2 victory of Belgium over Tunisia, which can be regarded as an outlier result. The second match between Panama and England ended 1-6 and was also an outlier result.
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In the following table we give the probabilities for the single teams to qualify for the Round of 16. Belgium and England are already qualified for the Round of 16; only the winner of the group still has to be determined.
|Belgium||52 %||48 %||0 %||0 %|
|England||48 %||52 %||0 %||0 %|
|Tunisia||0 %||0 %||62 %||38 %|
|Panama||0 %||0 %||38 %||62 %|
Now we take a closer look on both games in group D.
In the first match the “Red Devils” and the “Three Lions” have a final for the winner of the group. The outcome of the match is completely open:
Considering the estimated scores we favour a 1-1 draw, followed by a 1-0 victory of England and a 0-1 victory of Belgium.
In the second match in group G between Panama and Tunisia the outcome is also completely open.
The predicted scores are as follows:
Our model favours a 1-1 or 0-0 draw. But a 1-0 victory of Panama and a 0-1 victory of Tunisia are also among the most probable scores according to our mode.