Prediction for Match Day 3 in Group G

Before we present our estimated results for the last matches in group G, we give a quick evaluation of our forecast for the second match day in this group. The result of the first match was a 5-2 victory of Belgium over Tunisia, which can be regarded as an outlier result. The second match between Panama and England ended 1-6 and was also an outlier result.


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In the following table we give the probabilities for the single teams to qualify for the Round of 16. Belgium and England are already qualified for the Round of 16; only the winner of the group still has to be determined.

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Belgium 52 % 48 % 0 % 0 %
England 48 % 52 % 0 % 0 %
Tunisia 0 % 0 % 62 % 38 %
Panama 0 % 0 % 38 % 62 %

Now we take a closer look on both games in group D.

In the first match the “Red Devils”  and the “Three Lions” have a final for the winner of the group. The outcome of the match is completely open:


Considering the estimated scores we favour a 1-1 draw, followed by a 1-0 victory of England and a 0-1 victory of Belgium.


In the second match in group G between Panama and Tunisia the outcome is also completely open.


The predicted scores are as follows:


Our model favours a 1-1 or 0-0 draw. But a 1-0 victory of Panama and a 0-1 victory of Tunisia are also among the most probable scores according to our mode.