Prediction for Match Day 3 in Group G

Before we present our estimated results for the last matches in group G, we give a quick evaluation of our forecast for the second match day in this group. The result of the first match was a 5-2 victory of Belgium over Tunisia, which can be regarded as an outlier result. The second match between Panama and England ended 1-6 and was also an outlier result.

gruppeG-sankey

A click on the above picture leads to an interactive java-script version.

In the following table we give the probabilities for the single teams to qualify for the Round of 16. Belgium and England are already qualified for the Round of 16; only the winner of the group still has to be determined.

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Belgium 52 % 48 % 0 % 0 %
England 48 % 52 % 0 % 0 %
Tunisia 0 % 0 % 62 % 38 %
Panama 0 % 0 % 38 % 62 %

Now we take a closer look on both games in group D.

In the first match the “Red Devils”  and the “Three Lions” have a final for the winner of the group. The outcome of the match is completely open:

ENGBEL-result

Considering the estimated scores we favour a 1-1 draw, followed by a 1-0 victory of England and a 0-1 victory of Belgium.

ENGBEL-score

In the second match in group G between Panama and Tunisia the outcome is also completely open.

PANTUN-result

The predicted scores are as follows:

PANTUN-score

Our model favours a 1-1 or 0-0 draw. But a 1-0 victory of Panama and a 0-1 victory of Tunisia are also among the most probable scores according to our mode.