Prediction for Match Day 3 in Group F

Before we present our estimated results for the second matches in group F, we give a quick evaluation of our forecast for the second match day in this group. The result of the first match was a last-minute 2-1 victory of Germany over Sweden, which was among our most probable scores. The second match between Mexico and South Korea ended 2-1 and was also among the most probable predicted scores with a probability of 9,5 %.

gruppeF-sankey

A click on the above picture leads to an interactive java-script version.

In the following table we give the probabilities for the single teams to qualify for the Round of 16. Mexico has the best chances to win the group, and Germany is expected as the runner-up.

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Mexico 66 % 11 % 22 % 0 %
Germany 23 % 69 % 6 % 2 %
Sweden 11 % 19 % 69 % 1 %
South Korea 0 % 1 % 2 % 97 %

Now we take a closer look on both games in group F. In the first match the “Nationalmannschaft”  is clear favourite against South Korea.

KORGER-result

Considering the estimated scores we favour a 2-0 or 3-0 victory of Germany, followed by a 4-0 victory. Even more than 4 goals for Germany are not completely unlikely.  The row/column “5+” stands for five goals or more.

KORGER-score

The situation in the second match in group F between Mexico and Sweden is rather open with advantages for Mexico. Sweden has to win in order to qualify for the Round of 16, while Mexico just needs a single point in order to win the group.

MEXSWE-result

The predicted scores are as follows:

MEXSWE-score

Our model favours a 1-1 draw or 1-0 victory of Mexico, followed by a 2-0 victory of Mexico. But also a 0-1 victory of Sweden belongs to the most favoured results.