Prediction for Match Day 3 in Group E

Before we present our estimated results for the last matches in group E, we give a quick evaluation of our forecast for the second match day in this group. The result of the first match was a 2-0 victory of Brazil over Costa Rica, which belonged to one of our most favoured results. The 2-1 victory of Switzerland over Serbia against Costa Rica was expected with 6,5%.

gruppeE-sankey

A click on the above picture leads to an interactive java-script version.

In the following table we give the probabilities for the single teams to qualify for the Round of 16. In particular, Brazil has still the best chances to win the group and we expect Switzerland as runner-up.

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Brazil 74 % 19 % 6 % 0 %
Switzerland 21 % 76 % 3 % 0 %
Serbia 4 % 5 % 85 % 6 %
Costa Rica 0 % 0 % 6 % 94 %

Now we take a closer look on both games in group E. In the first match the “Seleçao”  is clear favourite against Serbia:

SRBBRA-result

We favour a 1-0 or 2-0 victory of Brazil followed by a 0-0 draw or a 3-1 victory of Brazil.

SRBBRA-score

The situation in the second match in group E between Switzerland and Costa Rica is rather open with better chances for Switzerland. According to our model Switzerland has a 50/50 chance to win this game.

SUICRC-result

The predicted scores are as follows:

SUICRC-score

Our model favours the following results: a 1-0 victory of Switzerland followed by 0-0 draw. But also a 1-1 draw or a 2-0 victory of Switzerland wouldn’t be unexpected.