Prediction for Match Day 3 in Group D

Before we present our estimated results for the last matches in group D, we give a quick evaluation of our forecast for the second match day in this group. The result of the first match was a surprising 3-0 victory of Croatia against Argentina, which was expected by our model with a probability of 1.4%. The 2-1 victory of Nigeria against Iceland was expected with a probability of 3.5%, but we expected the outcome of the match to be quite open.


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In the following table we give the probabilities for the single teams to qualify for the Round of 16:

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Croatia 100 % 0 % 0 % 0 %
Argentina 0 % 66 % 20 % 14 %
Nigeria 0 % 29 % 62 % 9 %
Iceland 0 % 5 % 19 % 76 %


Now we take a closer look on both games in group D. In the first match the “Albiceleste” with Lionel Messi will face the “Super Eagles” from Nigeria. Argentina has to win in order to avoid the elimination in the group phase. In our forecast model Argentina is favourite against Nigeria, but the team from Nigeria has still a reasonable chance to win a point, which could be enough to reach the round of 16.


The estimated scores are as follows: we favour a 1-0 victory of Argentina, followed by a 2-0 and 2-1 victory and a 1-1 draw. In particular, we may expect rather more goals in this match.


The situation in the second match in group D is also quite clear: Croatia has best chances to collect three points against Iceland. Iceland would need a victory in order to reach the round of 16, but this seems almost out of reach according to our model.


The predicted scores are as follows:


Our model favours a 1-0 or 2-0 victory of Croatia, followed by a 2-1 victory. But 2-1 and 3-0 victories of Croatia are also among the most probable scores together with 0-0 and 1-1 draws.