Prediction for Match Day 3 in Group B

Before we present our estimated results for the last matches in group B, we give a quick evaluation of our forecast  for the second match day in this group. The result of the first match was a 1-0 victory of Portugal against Morocco; the second match between Spain and Iran also ended 1-0. Both results were predicted by our model correctly!

In the first match Spain is favoured against Morocco, although Morocco might have some chance to win a point:


The estimated scores are as follows: we favour a 1-0 or 2-0 victory of Spain followed by a 3-0 victory or a 0-0 draw.


The situation in the second match in group B is quite clear: Portugal should probably win their match against Iran, although a draw would not be completely unexpected. A victory of Iran, however, seems to be out of reach.


The predicted scores are as follows:


Our model favours a 1-0 victory of Portugal followed by a 0-0 draw with still high probability, and a 2-0 victory of Portugal. Hence, if the defence of Iran shows a good performance, a draw could be possible.