Before we present our estimated results for the last matches in group A, we give a quick evaluation of our forecast for the second match day in this group. The result of the match between Russia and Egypt ended 3-1, starting with an unlucky own goal by Egypt. We expected a draw, which seemed to be a good estimate until the own goal. The 1-0 victory of Uruguay against Saudi Arabia was indeed our second most probable score.
Now let’s come to the final matches in group A, where Russia will face Uruguay in the match for the winner of this group and Egypt will play against Saudi Arabia.
The match between Uruguay and Russia is quite open with a slight advantage for Uruguay. It is remarkable that a draw is quite unlikely, although both teams have almost the same chances to win. This is an indicator for a match of the sort “the team who scores the first goal wins”.
Although we expect one of the two teams to win, the most probable score is a 1-1 draw. Besides this result we favour a 2-0 or 1-0 victory of Uruguay.
The situation in the second match in group A is quite clear: the “Pharaohs” from Egypt are favourite to win against Saudi Arabia, although one point for Saudia Arabia ist still not unlikely.
The predicted scores are as follows:
Our model favours a 1-0 or 2-0 victory of Egypt followed by a 0-0 or 1-1 draw.