Prediction for Match Day 2 in Group H

Before we present our estimated results for the second matches in group F, we give a quick evaluation of our forecast for the first match day in this group. The result of the first match was a 1-2 victory of Japan over Colombia, which was expected by our model with a probability of  4.6%. The second match between Poland and Senegal ended 1-2 and was expected with a probability of almost 7%. Although most experts favoured Poland, our model indeed saw the match as completely open.

In the first match Colombia is favourite against Poland, although a draw is the most probable outcome of the match:


We favour a 0-0 draw, followed by a 1-0 victory of Colombia, but a 1-1 draw or a 1-0 victory of Poland are also among the most probable scores. We do not expect to see many goals in this match.


In the second match in group H between Japan and Senegal we have the interesting situation that the result of the match is completely open:


The predicted scores are as follows:


Our model favours a 1-1 draw, followed by a 0-1 victory of Senegal and and a 1-0 victory of Japan.