Prediction for Match Day 2 in Group E

Before we present our estimated results for the second matches in group E, we give a quick evaluation of our forecast for the first match day in this group. The result of the first match was a 1-1 draw of Brazil against Switzerland, which was expected by our model with a probability of 8.5%. The 1-0 victory of Serbia against Costa Rica was our second most probable score.

In the first match the “Seleçao”  is clear favourite against Costa Rica:

BRACRC-result

We favour a 1-0 or 2-0 victory of Brazil followed by a 3-0. The row/column “5+” corresponds to the case of five goals or more.

BRACRC-score

The situation in the second match in group E between Serbia and Switzerland is rather open with better chances for Switzerland.

SRBSUI-result

The predicted scores are as follows:

SRBSUI-score

Our model favours a low-score result: a 0-1 victory of Switzerland followed by 0-0 draw. But also a 1-1 draw or a 1-0 victory of Serbia wouldn’t be unexpected.