Prediction for Match Day 2 in Group D

Before we present our estimated results for the second matches in group D, we give a quick evaluation of our forecast for the first match day in this group. The result of the first match was a 1-1 draw of Argentina against Iceland, which was expected by our model with a probability of 7.2%. The 2-0 victory of Croatia was expected with a probability of 8.8% and belonged also to one of our favored scores.

In the first match the “Albiceleste” with Lionel Messi will meet Croatia. Argentina is ¬†favourite against Croatia, but the team from Southeast Europa still has some good chances to win at least one point.

ARGCRO-result

The estimated scores are as follows: we favour a 1-0 victory of Argentina, followed by a 1-1 draw and a 2-1 victory of Argentina:

ARGCRO-score

The situation in the second match in group D is quite open, although Iceland has slight advantage against the “Super Eagles” from Nigeria:

NIGISL-result

The predicted scores are as follows:

NIGISL-score

Our model favours a 0-0 draw, followed by a 0-1 victory of Iceland and a 1-1 draw. A 1-0 victory belongs also to one of our most probable scores. Hence, this match is quite open.