Before we present our estimated results for the second matches in group D, we give a quick evaluation of our forecast for the first match day in this group. The result of the first match was a 1-1 draw of Argentina against Iceland, which was expected by our model with a probability of 7.2%. The 2-0 victory of Croatia was expected with a probability of 8.8% and belonged also to one of our favored scores.
In the first match the “Albiceleste” with Lionel Messi will meet Croatia. Argentina is favourite against Croatia, but the team from Southeast Europa still has some good chances to win at least one point.
The estimated scores are as follows: we favour a 1-0 victory of Argentina, followed by a 1-1 draw and a 2-1 victory of Argentina:
The situation in the second match in group D is quite open, although Iceland has slight advantage against the “Super Eagles” from Nigeria:
The predicted scores are as follows:
Our model favours a 0-0 draw, followed by a 0-1 victory of Iceland and a 1-1 draw. A 1-0 victory belongs also to one of our most probable scores. Hence, this match is quite open.