Before we present our estimated results for the second matches in group A, we give a quick evaluation of our forecast for the first match day in this group. The result of the opening match was a 5-0 victory of Russia against Saudi Arabia. Although we expected a win of Russia in this match, the score 5-0 is rather a outlier score and was difficult to forecast. The 1-0 victory of Uruguay against Egypt was indeed our most probable score.
Now let’s come to the second matches in group A, where Russia will face Egypt and Uruguay plays against Saudi Arabia.
The match between Russia and Egypt is quite open with a slight advantage of Egypt. The big question will be whether Mo Salah will be able to play for Egypt.
The estimated scores are as follows: we favour a 1-1 draw, followed by 1-0 victory of Egypt and a 0-0 draw. But also a 1-0 win of Russia belongs to the most probable results.
The situation in the second match in group A is quite clear: “La Celeste” from Uruguay should have no problems to win against the “Green Falcons” from Saudi Arabia:
The predicted scores are as follows, where “5+” stands for 5 or more goals:
Our model favours a 2-0 victory of Uruguay followed by a 1-0 and a 3-0 victory of the “Uru’s”.