Prediction for Match Day 1 in Group H

In this post we present our estimated results for the first matches in group H.  This group will start with Colombia vs. Japan. In the second match Poland will face Senegal. We give predictions for the result of both matches in terms of probabilities, including predictions for the scores.

In the first match “La Tricolor” is clear favourite against the “Samurais” of Japan, although Japan has still some chances to win a point:

COLJAP-result

We favour a 1-0 victory of Colombia, but a 1-1 draw, a 2-1 or 2-0 victory of Colombia are also among the most probable scores:

COLJAP-score

In the second match in group H between Poland and Senegal we have the interesting situation that the outcome of the match is completely open:

POLSEN-result

The predicted scores are as follows:

POLSEN-score

Our model favours slightly a 0-0 draw, but a 1-1 draw, a 1-0 or a 0-1 are also favoured results.