Prediction for Match Day 1 in Group E

In this post we present our estimated results for the first matches in group E. This group will start with one of the top favourites: Brazil vs. Switzerland. In the second match Costa Rica will play against Serbia. We give predictions for the result of both matches in terms of probabilities, including predictions for the scores.

In the first match the “Seleçao”  is clear favourite against the “Nati” of Switzerland. Although Switzerland might be able to win a point in this match, anything else than a victory of Brazil would be a surprise:


When we consider the estimated scores, the situation becomes a bit more interesting. Switzerland has a good chance to win a point by a 0-0 draw, but the most likely score is a 1-0. Hence, the result will also depend on the performance of the Swiss defence on the match day. Observe that the probabilities have slighted changed towards a success of Brazil since our earlier post on this match.


The situation in the second match in group E is quite open with slightly better chances for Serbia. This is also underlined by the last test matches when Serbia won 5-1 against Bolivia, while Costa Rica has lost in Belgium 1-4.


The predicted scores are as follows:


Our model favours a low-score result: 0-0, 0-1, 1-1, or 1-0. So, don’t expect too many goals in this match.