Prediction for Match Day 1 in Group D

In this post we present our estimated results for the first matches in group D. This group will start with the match between  Argentina and Iceland. In the second match Croatia will face Nigeria. We give predictions for the result of both matches in terms of probabilities, including predictions for the scores.

In the first match the “Albiceleste” with Lionel Messi is  clear favourite against the the EURO 2016 surprising team of Iceland. It would more than a surprise if Iceland could win one point from this match:

ARGICE

The estimated scores are as follows: we favour a 1-0 or 2-0 victory of Argentina, but also a higher score won’t be unexpected:

ARGICE-score

The situation in the second match in group D is also a clear prediction for Croatia, although the “Super Eagles” from Nigeria still have some chances to gain one point:

CRONIG

The predicted scores are as follows:

CRONIG-score

Our model favours a 1-0 win of Croatia, but also a 1-1 or 0-0 draw would not be unexpected. However, a victory of Croatia is still most likely.