In this post we give our prediction for the match for the third place in the World Cup 2018 between Belgium and England. While the “Red Devils” have lost their semi-final match against France, England has been eliminated by Croatia after extra time. We have updated our model by incorporating the results up to the semi-finals in order to forecast the match for the third place.
We present the probabilities for each team to win the match for the third place. This takes into account a victory after 90 or 120 minutes according to our model. Furthermore, we give the probability for a penalty shoot-out. Our model favours Belgium clearly, while England seems to have only minor chances. Nonetheless, it is not clear with which squads the teams will start the match: the chance is high that several substitute players will play and so the forecast underlies even more uncertainty. A decision by penalty shoot-out is rather unlikely. (We recall from our previous posts: We believe that penalty shoot-outs are very difficult if not impossible to model and hence we do not give any further forecasts in this case.)
Analogously to our previous posts during the group phase of the tournament, we present the probabilities for the match after 90 minutes: we favour a 1-0 victory of Belgium, followed by 0-0 or 1-1 draws after 90 minutes. But also 2-0 or 2-1 victories of Belgium belong to the most probable scores according to our model.
Since the probability for a draw after 90 minutes is not low, we also present the expected results after 120 minutes in the case that the match goes into extra time (ET):
Hence, the estimated probability that Belgium wins 2-1 after extra time is 2.95%. This includes the cases of a 0-0 or a 1-1 draw after 90 minutes. According to the above table we expect a victory of Belgium or a penalty shoot-out if the match goes into extra time.