Match for 3rd Place: Belgium – England

In this post we give our prediction for the match for the third place in the World Cup 2018 between Belgium and England. While the “Red Devils” have lost their semi-final match against France, England has been eliminated by Croatia after extra time. We have updated our model by incorporating the results up to the semi-finals in order to forecast the match for the third place.

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World Cup 2018 Final: France – Croatia

In this post we give our prediction for the World Cup 2018 final between France and Croatia. While France has eliminated Belgium in their semi-final match, Croatia has beaten England after extra time in the semi-finals. For many experts France seems to be the big favourite, but we want to quantify the chances for each team in terms of probability. We have updated our model by incorporating the results up to the semi-finals in order to forecast the final.

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Semifinal: Croatia – England

In this post we give our prediction for the second semifinal match between Croatia and England in the World Cup 2018. While Croatia as winner of group D has eliminated the host Russia in the quarter-final, England has beaten Sweden in their quarter-final match. We have updated our model by incorporating the results up to the quarter-finals in order to forecast the matches in the quarter-finals.

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Semifinal: France – Belgium

In this post we give our prediction for the first semifinal match between France and Belgium in the World Cup 2018. While France as winner of group C has eliminated Uruguay in the quarter-final, Belgium has beaten Brazil in their quarter-final match. For many experts this semifinal seems to be a preponed final since probably the best two remaining teams in the competition fight for a single ticket to the final. We have updated our model by incorporating the results up to the quarter-finals in order to forecast the matches in the quarter-finals.

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Update after Quarter-finals: Which team has now best chances to become new World Champion?

The matches of the quarter-finals in the World Cup 2018 have been played. Only 4 of 32 teams are left. While top favourite Brazil has been eliminated by Belgium in the quarter-final, the semifinal between France and Belgium seems to be a preponed final. In the other semifinal Croatia will face England, two teams which are quite unexpected in the semifinals.  We are now interested in the chances of the remaining teams.

Since our prediction model is based on the Elo strength of the participating teams, we have updated our data by incorporating the results up to the quarter-finals and have made 100.000 simulations of the Knockout phase of the tournament (starting with the semifinals). Continue reading “Update after Quarter-finals: Which team has now best chances to become new World Champion?”

Quarter final: Russia – Croatia

In this post we give our prediction for the quarter-final match Russia vs. Croatia in the World Cup 2018. While Russia as runner-up of group A has surprisingly eliminated Spain in the Round of 16, Croatia as winner of group D has eliminated Denmark in a penalty shoot-out. We have updated our model by incorporating the results up to the Round of 16 in order to forecast the matches in the quarter-finals.

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Quarter final: Sweden – England

In this post we give our prediction for the quarter-final match Sweden vs. England in the World Cup 2018. While Sweden as winner of group F has eliminated Switzerland, England as runner-up of group G has eliminated Columbia in a penalty shoot-out. We have updated our model by incorporating the results up to the Round of 16 in order to forecast the matches in the quarter-finals.

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Quarter final: Uruguay – France

In this post we give our prediction for the quarter-final match Uruguay vs. France in the World Cup 2018. While Uruguay as winner of group H has eliminated European champion Portugal, France as winner of group C has eliminated Argentina with Lionel Messi. Since our prediction model is based on the Elo strengths of the participating teams, we have updated our data by incorporating the results up to the Round of 16 in order to forecast the matches in the quarter-finals.

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Update after Round of 16: What are the probable outcomes of the whole tournament?

The matches of the Round of 16 in the World Cup 2018 have been played. Only 8 of 32 teams are left, while top favourites Spain and Argentina have been eliminated. Since the path of each team to a possible final is fixed, we are interested in how difficult or easy it is to reach different stages of the tournament.

Since our prediction model is based on the Elo strength of the participating teams, we have updated our data by incorporating the results of the group phase and the Round of 16 and have made 100.000 simulations of the Knockout phase of the tournament (starting with the quarterfinals). Continue reading “Update after Round of 16: What are the probable outcomes of the whole tournament?”