The World Cup 2018 starts soon and it is important to start the tournament in a good shape and with a win in the first match. In this post we estimate the most likely scores of the opening match for the top favourite Brazil. The “Seleçao” will face in its first match the Swiss “Nati” team. Recall the World Cup 2010 when Switzerland’s first match was against Spain, one of the top favourites in 2010, where Switzerland has won 1-0. Is it likely that Switzerland makes another coup as in those days?
We have used our forecast model and calculated the probabilities of different possible scores for the first match in group E, Brazil vs. Switzerland. The probabilities are as follows:
Hence, the most likely score, according to our model, will be a 1-0 win of Brazil, followed by a 0-0 draw. However, a clear 2-0 victory is also a very likely result. As a summary, Switzerland has some good chances to make a draw and save one important point, but overall, Brazil has a 66% chance to win the games, while a draw has a probability of 27,5% and a Swiss victory only has a 6,5% chance.