Update after Match Day 2: What are the probable outcomes of the whole tournament?

The second match day in the World Cup 2018 is over. Every team has played twice and several decisions are fallen. Since our prediction model is based on the Elo strength of the participating teams, we have updated our data by incorporating the results of the second match day and have made 100.000 simulations of the whole tournament (starting from match day 3). We are interested in the influence of the results of the first and second match days on our forecast. Continue reading “Update after Match Day 2: What are the probable outcomes of the whole tournament?”

Prediction for Match Day 3 in Group A

Before we present our estimated results for the last matches in group A, we give a quick evaluation of our forecast  for the second match day in this group. The result of the match between Russia and Egypt ended 3-1, starting with an unlucky own goal by Egypt. We expected a draw, which seemed to be a good estimate until the own goal.  The 1-0 victory of Uruguay against Saudi Arabia was indeed our second most probable score.

Now let’s come to the final matches in group A, where Russia will face Uruguay in the match for the winner of this group and Egypt will play against Saudi Arabia.

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Prediction for Match Day 2 in Group H

Before we present our estimated results for the second matches in group F, we give a quick evaluation of our forecast for the first match day in this group. The result of the first match was a 1-2 victory of Japan over Colombia, which was expected by our model with a probability of  4.6%. The second match between Poland and Senegal ended 1-2 and was expected with a probability of almost 7%. Although most experts favoured Poland, our model indeed saw the match as completely open.

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Prediction for Match Day 2 in Group G

Before we present our estimated results for the second matches in group F, we give a quick evaluation of our forecast for the first match day in this group. The result of the first match was a 3-0 victory of Belgium over Panama, which was expected by our model with a probability of almost 7%. The second match between Tunisia and England ended 1-2 and was the fourth most probable score according to our model.

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Prediction for Match Day 2 in Group F

Before we present our estimated results for the second matches in group F, we give a quick evaluation of our forecast for the first match day in this group. The result of the first match was a 0-1 victory of Mexico, which was surely a surprise for most spectators. Our model didn’t favour this result, but still expected this score with a probability of 4,1%. The second match between Sweden and South Korea was predicted correctly by our model! Continue reading “Prediction for Match Day 2 in Group F”

Prediction for Match Day 2 in Group E

Before we present our estimated results for the second matches in group E, we give a quick evaluation of our forecast for the first match day in this group. The result of the first match was a 1-1 draw of Brazil against Switzerland, which was expected by our model with a probability of 8.5%. The 1-0 victory of Serbia against Costa Rica was our second most probable score.

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Update after Match Day 1: What are the probable outcomes of the whole tournament?

The first match day in the World Cup 2018 is over. Every team has played once. Since our prediction model is based on the Elo strength of the participating teams, we have updated our data by incorporating the results of the first match day and have made 100.000 simulations of the whole tournament (starting from match day 2). We are interested in the influence of the results of the first match day on our forecast. Continue reading “Update after Match Day 1: What are the probable outcomes of the whole tournament?”

Prediction for Match Day 2 in Group D

Before we present our estimated results for the second matches in group D, we give a quick evaluation of our forecast for the first match day in this group. The result of the first match was a 1-1 draw of Argentina against Iceland, which was expected by our model with a probability of 7.2%. The 2-0 victory of Croatia was expected with a probability of 8.8% and belonged also to one of our favored scores.

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