Round of 16: Croatia – Denmark

In this post we give our prediction for the match Croatia vs. Denmark in the Round of 16 of the World Cup 2018. While Croatia has qualified as winner of group D with 9 points, Denmark (5 points) was runner-up of group C behind France (7 points).  Since our prediction model is based on the Elo strengths of the participating teams, we have updated our data by incorporating the results of the group phase in order to forecast the matches in the Knockout phase. We are interested which team has better chances to qualify for the quarter-finals.

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Round of 16: Spain – Russia

In this post we give our prediction for the match Spain vs. Russia in the Round of 16 of the World Cup 2018. While Spain has qualified as winner of group B with 5 points, Russia (6 points) was runner-up of group A behind Uruguay (9 points).  Since our prediction model is based on the Elo strengths of the participating teams, we have updated our data by incorporating the results of the group phase in order to forecast the matches in the Knockout phase. We are interested which team has better chances to qualify for the quarter-finals.

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Round of 16: Uruguay – Portugal

In this post we give our prediction for the match Uruguay vs. Portugal in the Round of 16 of the World Cup 2018. While Uruguay has qualified as winner of group A with 9 points, Portugal (5 points) was runner-up of group B behind Spain (5 points) due to less scored goals than Spain.  Since our prediction model is based on the Elo strengths of the participating teams, we have updated our data by incorporating the results of the group phase in order to forecast the matches in the Knockout phase. We are interested which team has better chances to qualify for the quarter-finals.

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Round of 16: France – Argentina

In this post we give our prediction for the match France vs. Argentina in the Round of 16 of the World Cup 2018. This match is definitely one of the top matches in this stage of the tournament. Since our prediction model is based on the Elo strengths of the participating teams, we have updated our data by incorporating the results of the group phase in order to forecast the matches in the Knockout phase. While France has qualified as winner of group C, Argentina was surprisingly only runner-up of group D. We are interested which team has better chances to qualify for the quarter-finals.

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Update after group phase: What are the probable outcomes of the whole tournament?

The group phase in the World Cup 2018 is over. Half of the participating teams have been eliminated, including the current World Champion Germany who showed an unexpected weak performance. Now the path of each team to a possible final is fixed and we are interested in how difficult or easy it is to reach different stages of the tournament.

Since our prediction model is based on the Elo strength of the participating teams, we have updated our data by incorporating the results of the group phase and have made 100.000 simulations of the Knockout phase of the tournament (starting from match day 3). Continue reading “Update after group phase: What are the probable outcomes of the whole tournament?”

Prediction for Match Day 3 in Group H

Before we present our estimated results for the last matches in group H, we give a quick evaluation of our forecast for the second match day in this group. The result of the first match was a surprisingly clear 0-3 victory of Colombia over Poland. However, our model favoured Colombia to win this match. The match between Japan and Senegal ended 2-2 and was expected with a probability of 6%.

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Prediction for Match Day 3 in Group F

Before we present our estimated results for the second matches in group F, we give a quick evaluation of our forecast for the second match day in this group. The result of the first match was a last-minute 2-1 victory of Germany over Sweden, which was among our most probable scores. The second match between Mexico and South Korea ended 2-1 and was also among the most probable predicted scores with a probability of 9,5 %.

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Prediction for Match Day 3 in Group E

Before we present our estimated results for the last matches in group E, we give a quick evaluation of our forecast for the second match day in this group. The result of the first match was a 2-0 victory of Brazil over Costa Rica, which belonged to one of our most favoured results. The 2-1 victory of Switzerland over Serbia against Costa Rica was expected with 6,5%.

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Prediction for Match Day 3 in Group D

Before we present our estimated results for the last matches in group D, we give a quick evaluation of our forecast for the second match day in this group. The result of the first match was a surprising 3-0 victory of Croatia against Argentina, which was expected by our model with a probability of 1.4%. The 2-1 victory of Nigeria against Iceland was expected with a probability of 3.5%, but we expected the outcome of the match to be quite open.

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